AI creates net drag on US employment, Goldman Sachs analysis finds
New data suggests AI destroys 25,000 jobs monthly while creating only 9,000, hitting young professionals hardest.
Artificial intelligence is exerting a measurable negative pressure on the United States labor market, according to new research from Goldman Sachs. The findings suggest that the theoretical risks of automation are transitioning into a tangible employment drag.
Researchers at the bank estimate that AI is currently causing a net loss of approximately 16,000 jobs per month on US payrolls. This figure stems from a stark imbalance between job destruction and creation: the technology is estimated to be destroying roughly 25,000 jobs monthly through substitution, while creating only about 9,000 new roles through augmentation. This shift has been significant enough to contribute to a 0.1 percentage point increase in the overall US unemployment rate.
The Shift in AI Impact
These findings mark a pivot from earlier, more optimistic projections. In 2023, Goldman Sachs released a report suggesting that while generative AI could disrupt up to 300 million full-time jobs globally, the technology would likely complement most roles rather than replace them entirely. However, current data indicates a more immediate "squeezing" effect. Rather than a slow transition of tasks, the market is seeing a direct reduction in headcount in sectors most exposed to AI capabilities.
A Crisis for Entry-Level Talent
The impact is not distributed evenly across the workforce; it is hitting the youngest professionals with particular severity. Employment for workers aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed roles has dropped by 13% since 2022. This suggests the emergence of a "junior crisis," where the traditional entry-level roles that once served as the primary pipeline for professional development are being automated or replaced by a smaller number of "AI-native" hires who can produce the output of multiple junior employees.
Industry Implications
This trend signals a fundamental disruption to the traditional career trajectory. If entry-level positions continue to vanish, the industry faces a long-term talent gap, as there will be fewer experienced mid-level managers in the future who learned the fundamentals of their craft. For the broader market, the Goldman Sachs data proves that AI displacement is no longer a future projection but a current economic headwind.
What to Watch
Market analysts will now monitor whether this net drag accelerates as more enterprises integrate generative AI into their core workflows. It remains to be seen whether the rate of job creation will eventually scale to offset these losses, or if the 0.1 percentage point bump in unemployment is the beginning of a more permanent structural shift in the US economy.