Bitcoin Needs Close Above $81,700 to Confirm Bull Market, CryptoQuant Says
Analysis identifies the 365-day moving average as the critical threshold for a genuine trend reversal.
Bitcoin must secure a close above $81,700 to officially confirm the start of a new bull market, according to analysis from CryptoQuant. This specific price point represents the asset's 365-day moving average, a metric the firm views as the definitive line between a temporary rebound and a sustained uptrend.
According to CryptoQuant, the $81,700 level is the primary technical hurdle for the cryptocurrency. Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, noted that historically, bull markets officially begin when the price crosses above this 365-day moving average. However, the path to that confirmation is blocked by a significant short-term supply zone between $77,100 and $80,200. In this range, long-term holders have sold 539,000 BTC so far this year, creating a cluster of resistance that may cap immediate gains.
Market Context
Bitcoin has recently been consolidating within a range of $76,000 to $82,000. This period of sideways movement comes as traders attempt to determine if the current price action is a "bearish rebound" or a true trend reversal. CryptoQuant's methodology relies on historical cycle patterns, using long-term moving averages to filter out short-term volatility and identify the onset of macro-bullish phases.
Why It Matters
For investors and traders, these benchmarks provide a concrete framework to manage risk. By identifying specific supply and demand zones based on actual BTC volume, the analysis highlights where selling pressure is likely to peak and where buying interest is strongest.
While the $81,700 level is the immediate target, the market also has established floors. Key support is identified at $70,000, which aligns with the 200-day moving average. Further support exists in the $62,000 to $65,000 range, a zone where 476,000 BTC were purchased this year, suggesting a strong base of buyer accumulation.
What's Next
If Bitcoin successfully clears the $81,700 threshold, analysts project the asset will face subsequent resistance levels at $83,600 and $88,700. Despite the immediate resistance near the top of the current range, Moreno stated that the broader trend for the asset remains positive. Market participants will now be watching for a decisive daily or weekly close above the 365-day moving average to validate the shift in market regime.