Bitcoin Selling Pressure Hits Historic Lows as Asset Eyes $80,000
On-chain data shows a sharp decline in profit-taking among long-term holders, though ETF losses create a looming ceiling.
Bitcoin is seeing a significant reduction in sell-side pressure as the cryptocurrency recovers toward the $80,000 mark. This shift suggests a strengthening floor of support as both long-term holders and recent buyers show a decreased inclination to liquidate their positions.
According to data from Glassnode, Bitcoin's Sell-Side Risk Ratio (SSRR)—a metric tracking realized profits and losses relative to market capitalization—fell to 7 basis points per day this week. This represents a steep drop from the 16 basis points recorded during the August peak and marks one of the lowest readings on record. The decline in selling pressure is further evidenced by the behavior of long-term holders, whose share of realized profits plummeted to 47% in September, down from a peak of 88% in August.
The Accumulation Phase
Historically, low SSRR readings signal market bottoms or accumulation phases where the appetite for selling diminishes. Bitcoin recently experienced a period of volatility, dipping to approximately $77,600 before beginning its current rebound. Glassnode notes that until the SSRR moves back above 16 basis points, the spot market remains short of sellers at current price levels, suggesting that the aggressive selling seen in August has not yet returned.
Institutional Headwinds
Despite the bullish on-chain signals, the path to new highs is complicated by institutional positioning. US spot Bitcoin ETF buyers are currently facing significant headwinds, with an aggregate breakeven point estimated near $86,000. This means that ETF investors are currently holding roughly $3.9 billion in paper losses. As the price climbs toward that $86,000 threshold, these investors may be tempted to sell simply to break even, creating a potential zone of heavy resistance.
Macroeconomic Outlook
Beyond internal market dynamics, Bitcoin remains sensitive to broader economic instability. The recovery faces external pressure from rising oil prices and the possibility of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. These macroeconomic factors typically weigh on risk assets, potentially capping the upside of the current rebound.
Investors are now watching to see if the lack of spot sellers can outweigh the combined pressure of ETF breakeven points and inflation concerns. While the current data points to a strong foundation, a sustained move above the 16 basis point SSRR threshold would signal that the large-scale sellers of August have returned to the market.