Bitwise Projects Bitcoin Could Hit $1.3 Million by 2035

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan projects that Bitcoin could reach a price of $1.3 million per coin by 2035. The forecast suggests that maintaining no exposure to the asset is a misallocation of capital given its potential as a high-growth hedge against currency debasement.

According to Bitwise's base-case valuation model, Bitcoin's price surge would be driven by its increasing dominance in the global store-of-value market. Specifically, the model assumes Bitcoin's share of the global gold market capitalization will grow from approximately 9% to 25% over the next decade. This shift would position the digital asset as a primary competitor to gold's traditional role in diversified portfolios.

The Growth Gap

Bitwise's long-term capital market assumptions highlight a stark contrast between Bitcoin and traditional asset classes. The firm projects annualized returns for Bitcoin of approximately 28.3% over the next ten years. In comparison, Bitwise expects significantly lower returns for traditional benchmarks, projecting roughly 6% for stocks and 5% for bonds.

Hougan frames this trajectory by comparing Bitcoin's current phase to the period following the launch of gold ETFs in 2004. He notes that Bitcoin's market capitalization at the time of its own ETF launch mirrored the valuation of gold during its early ETF era, suggesting a similar path toward institutional normalization.

Institutional Normalization

This research provides a quantitative framework for institutional allocators to move away from zero-allocation strategies. By framing Bitcoin as a modern extension of the store-of-value trade, Bitwise is pushing for the asset to be treated as a strategic component of a portfolio rather than a speculative anomaly.

Crucially, the firm highlights Bitcoin's diversification benefits. Bitwise expects the long-run correlation between Bitcoin and equities to rise toward 0.36, remaining low enough to provide a hedge while offering growth that far outpaces traditional equities and fixed-income assets. As Hougan puts it, "Bitcoin is not just another highly volatile asset; it is expected to be one of the highest returning investments over the next decade."

The Path Forward

While the $1.3 million target serves as a base case, the realization of this price depends on the continued migration of capital from gold to digital assets. Investors will be watching whether institutional adoption continues to accelerate at a pace that supports a 25% share of the gold market cap. For now, Bitwise's projections signal a shift in how the largest capital managers view the long-term utility of the Bitcoin network.