Michael Howell Forecasts Stagnant 2026 for Bitcoin as 30-Year Yields Climb
The liquidity expert predicts a quiet year for crypto assets while Treasury yields potentially hit 6%.
Financial analyst Michael Howell has issued a cautious outlook for Bitcoin in 2026, suggesting the digital asset will lack significant momentum. This projection comes alongside a forecast that 30-year Treasury yields will trend upward, signaling a challenging macroeconomic environment for speculative assets.
According to a report from TradingView, Howell believes 2026 will not be a "big year" for Bitcoin. His analysis is rooted in the behavior of the 65-month global liquidity cycle, which he expects will not reach its bottom until approximately the middle of 2027. In tandem with this crypto stagnation, Howell expressed conviction that 30-year Treasury yields will rise, specifically noting that they could reach the 6% mark.
The Liquidity Connection
Howell is widely recognized for his focus on global liquidity cycles, a framework that links the price of assets to the availability of credit and the overarching policies of central banks. In this model, asset prices typically move in correlation with the expansion and contraction of global liquidity. Because the current cycle is projected to remain in a trough through much of 2026, the necessary financial "fuel" to drive a major Bitcoin rally is expected to be absent.
Market Implications
This perspective suggests a potential period of stagnation for cryptocurrency relative to the broader bond market. When long-term Treasury yields rise, the cost of borrowing increases and the relative attractiveness of risk-free government debt grows. For high-volatility assets like Bitcoin, a climb toward 6% in 30-year yields typically creates a headwind, as investors often rotate away from speculative holdings in favor of higher-yielding, safer instruments.
Looking Ahead
Investors will likely monitor the 2027 horizon, as Howell's timeline suggests that a meaningful recovery in liquidity—and by extension, asset prices—may not materialize until the cycle bottoms next year. While the path for Bitcoin remains muted in his 2026 forecast, the primary indicator to watch will be the actual trajectory of the 30-year yield and the timing of the global liquidity pivot. This suggests that the window for significant crypto growth is shifted further into the future than many optimistic market participants currently anticipate, tying the digital asset's fate directly to the macro-cycle's recovery.