AI Resource Concentration Threatens Global Strategic Autonomy, RAND Warns

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence is creating strategic discontinuities in global security that could leave many nations unable to maintain independent policy goals. According to Matan Chorev, Vice President and Director of RAND Global and Emerging Risks, the concentration of critical AI inputs is fundamentally reshaping how states compete and survive.

Chorev argues that the pursuit of "strategic autonomy"—the ability of a state to act independently in its own interests—will likely be frustrated for many nations. This is because the essential components required for frontier AI, specifically chips, compute, capital, talent, and energy, are concentrated in very few hands. As a result, the gap between great powers like the U.S. and China and emerging powers is expected to grow rather than shrink, as the latter lack the combined resources necessary to develop cutting-edge AI capabilities.

A Shift in Geopolitical Assumptions

This shift occurs as the global landscape moves away from post-Cold War era assumptions. To address this, RAND's Global and Emerging Risks division is working to provide foundational analysis similar to the strategic frameworks developed after World War II. The goal is to help policymakers navigate a period of extreme uncertainty characterized by the dual threats of AI and biological risks.

The Limits of Dominance

While the U.S. and China hold a significant lead, Chorev suggests that translating these AI advantages into absolute geopolitical dominance will be harder than anticipated. Even the most powerful states remain dependent on external players for key resources, creating a complex web of interdependence that prevents any single nation from achieving total control through technology alone.

National Security Implications

The urgency of this transition cannot be overstated. Unlike nuclear technology, which was strictly controlled by governments, AI development is driven largely by private actors, making anticipatory planning more difficult. Chorev warns that "failing to prepare for these transformations is preparing to fail," noting that AI is reshaping every aspect of how the world lives, works, fights, and competes.

What to Watch

As the resource divide deepens, the primary focus for security analysts will be whether emerging powers can find alternative paths to AI capability or if they will become permanently dependent on the great powers. Additionally, the U.S. must determine how to secure its own supply chains for chips and energy to mitigate the risks of external dependency in an increasingly volatile strategic environment.