GenAI threatens nearly 25% of Southeast Asia's workforce, ILO report finds
White-collar roles face the highest risk of disruption, though experts say jobs are more likely to evolve than disappear.
Nearly one in four workers across Southeast Asia face job disruption or significant effects from generative AI (GenAI), according to a July report by the International Labour Organization (ILO). The findings suggest a sweeping shift in the regional labor market, though the impact varies sharply by sector and gender.
According to the report, nearly 80 million workers in the region are employed in jobs exposed to GenAI. Singapore is the most affected, with 42.2% of its workforce exposed, followed by the Philippines at 28.1%, Indonesia at 21.7%, Vietnam at 20.8%, and Thailand at 20.6%. While these figures appear high, the ILO notes that only 3.3% of Southeast Asian workers fall into the "highest exposure" category, while approximately 67% of the workforce remains in roles with no identified exposure to the technology.
The Shift to Cognitive Automation
The region is transitioning from traditional automation—the hallmark of the Fourth Industrial Revolution—to Generative AI, which specifically targets routine cognitive tasks. This shift has left white-collar roles, particularly those in clerical, administrative, and professional positions, highly exposed. In contrast, manual and agricultural trades remain largely insulated from these technological shifts.
Gender disparities are also evident. The ILO report highlights a significant gap, noting that women are more exposed to GenAI than men. This is particularly acute in Thailand and the Philippines, where women are three to four times more likely than men to occupy highly exposed roles, often due to their concentration in clerical and professional sectors.
Economic Implications and the 'Two-Tier' Risk
Despite the high exposure rates, there is currently limited evidence of large-scale job losses. Instead, the trend points toward job transformation. Phu Huynh, a senior employment specialist at the ILO, stated that GenAI is likely to reshape white-collar jobs because routine cognitive tasks can be automated or augmented, noting that the primary issue is jobs evolving rather than disappearing.
However, this evolution carries the risk of creating a "two-tier" workforce. Nighat Nighat, an associate at the Aapti Institute, warns that workers performing routine tasks may be substituted, leading to downward wage pressure. Conversely, high-skill workers who use AI to complement their roles may see their productivity and value increase. Without government intervention and aggressive reskilling, this divide could widen the gap between high- and low-paying jobs and eliminate critical entry-level roles for young professionals.
Regional Readiness Gaps
While advanced economies like Singapore are well-positioned to leverage AI due to existing digital infrastructure, other nations face a steeper climb. Lower-tier economies, including Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and East Timor, suffer from readiness gaps that may prevent them from capturing the productivity gains offered by GenAI. The coming years will likely determine whether these nations can bridge the digital divide or if the AI transition will further entrench regional economic inequality.