Bitcoin Struggles to Clear $81,700 Bull Market Confirmation Threshold

Bitcoin is trading within striking distance of a critical technical milestone, but analysts warn that a lack of institutional support may block its path. The cryptocurrency must achieve a weekly close above $81,700—its 365-day moving average—to officially confirm the start of a new bull market, according to data from CryptoQuant.

While the price has trended upward during a recent two-week rally, the momentum appears fragile. Retail sentiment has shifted toward greed, leading to an increase in leveraged bets. However, this retail enthusiasm is not mirrored by larger players. A negative Coinbase Premium Index suggests that U.S. institutional investors are showing weaker buying interest or are actively applying selling pressure, leaving the current rally without the professional backing typically required for a sustained breakout.

Technical Exhaustion

The disconnect between retail traders and institutional whales is compounded by deteriorating technical indicators. GugaOnChain, an analyst at CryptoQuant, noted that price momentum has already reached an exhausted state at level 20. Furthermore, the FEI Score has hit 99.53%, a level that suggests the current price action is dominated by noise rather than a fundamental trend.

These metrics indicate that the upward move may have run out of steam before reaching the $81,700 target. When retail traders pile into leveraged long positions while institutional interest wanes, the market becomes susceptible to volatility. Analysts suggest that the current environment is primed for a correction rather than a continuation.

The Risk of a Long Squeeze

The primary concern for the market now is the potential for a "long squeeze." This occurs when a sudden price dip forces over-leveraged retail traders to sell their positions to cover losses, which in turn triggers further price drops in a cascading effect. GugaOnChain explicitly warned that the combination of exhausted momentum and high retail greed has "set the stage" for such an event.

If a long squeeze occurs, it could drive the price significantly lower, widening the gap to the bull market confirmation level and erasing the gains of the recent rally. This dynamic highlights the danger of relying on retail sentiment in the absence of institutional accumulation.

Outlook for Confirmation

Investors are now watching to see if Bitcoin can overcome the institutional selling pressure to clear the $81,700 hurdle. Until a weekly close above that average is secured, the market remains in a state of uncertainty. The immediate focus remains on whether the current price momentum can be revived by new buyers or if the market will succumb to the technical pressures of a leveraged correction.