Macro Investor Jordi Visser: AI 'Easy Money' Era Over, Eyes Crypto Pivot
Rising Big Tech costs and open-source competition are capping AI windfalls, shifting the opportunity toward fee-generating blockchains.
Veteran macro investor Jordi Visser argues that the era of massive windfall returns in artificial intelligence has ended, signaling a fundamental shift in how investors should approach the sector. Visser suggests the market is moving away from the 'easy money' phase, where investors could see seven- to eight-fold returns, toward a more modest growth trajectory of approximately 30% annually.
This cooling of the AI trade is driven by a tightening squeeze on the balance sheets of the industry's largest spenders. According to data cited by Visser, Meta's free cash flow plummeted to $784 million from approximately $8.5 billion a year earlier. Alphabet (Google) faced an even more stark milestone, reporting negative free cash flow of $5.9 billion for the April-to-June quarter—the first such occurrence since the company's 2004 listing. These figures highlight a trend where the cost of building data center capacity is beginning to outpace the immediate revenue gains from AI integration.
The Open-Source Pressure
Beyond immediate capital expenditures, Visser points to the rise of open-source models as a structural barrier to continued exponential gains. He contends that the availability of high-quality, free models prevents any single corporation from maintaining a dominant, long-term competitive advantage. This democratization of AI technology effectively caps the pricing power of Big Tech, transforming AI from a speculative gold mine into a utility-driven industry.
A Rotation Toward Blockchain
As the AI trade matures, Visser suggests a strategic rotation into the cryptocurrency space. His thesis rests on the potential for AI agents to begin moving money autonomously via blockchains, which would provide a functional utility for digital assets beyond mere speculation.
Within the crypto market, Visser expects Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin. He attributes this preference to current investor sentiment, noting that the market is increasingly favoring networks that generate actual fees through usage rather than assets that serve primarily as stores of value. This shift reflects a broader macro trend where investors seek tangible yield and utility over pure hype.
Market Implications
This pivot comes amid broader instability in U.S. equities. Goldman Sachs has recently noted a lack of momentum for stock rallies, coinciding with hedge fund borrowing reaching five-year highs and retail trading activity remaining below average. For macro investors, the transition from the 'AI hype' phase to a 'utility' phase suggests that future gains will be found in the infrastructure that enables AI to interact with the financial world.
While the specific catalyst of autonomous AI financial transactions remains a theoretical driver for the next leg of crypto growth, the compression of Big Tech cash flows provides a concrete signal that the initial AI frenzy has reached its limit.