VanEck Signals Bitcoin Is Approaching Cyclical Bottom
The global asset manager suggests investors may begin scaling back into positions as price action aligns with historical halving cycles.
Asset manager VanEck has indicated that Bitcoin is approaching a cyclical bottom, suggesting that current market conditions may warrant investors beginning to scale back into positions. This assessment follows a period of significant volatility that has seen the cryptocurrency retreat from its recent peaks.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline from a record high of approximately $126,080 reached in October 2025. The asset subsequently dropped nearly 50% from that peak, trading in the low $60,000s. VanEck views this slump not as an anomaly, but as a movement consistent with Bitcoin's historical four-year halving cycles, where mining reward cuts typically precede bear phases.
The GEO Framework
To reach this conclusion, VanEck utilizes a proprietary "GEO framework" to analyze market health. This system evaluates three primary pillars: Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, and On-Chain Activity.
Currently, VanEck reports that two of these three signals—Global Liquidity and On-Chain Activity—remain neutral. However, the firm notes that ecosystem leverage is showing constructive signs and improvement. By synthesizing these metrics, the asset manager identifies the current price action as tracking the familiar patterns of previous cycles, suggesting the market is nearing a sustainable floor.
Market Implications
This shift in stance from a major global asset manager carries significant weight for both institutional and retail participants. In the cryptocurrency market, the transition from a period of capitulation to a new accumulation phase is often signaled by the entry of large-scale institutional players.
VanEck's suggestion to "scale in" implies a belief that the worst of the current drawdown may be over. If the cyclical bottom thesis holds, it could shift broader market sentiment from fear to cautious optimism, potentially stabilizing the price as investors begin to build positions for the next projected uptrend.
Looking Ahead
While the GEO framework provides a structural basis for optimism, the market remains in a delicate state. Investors will be watching to see if the neutral signals for global liquidity and on-chain activity shift toward the bullish side to confirm a full reversal. For now, the primary focus remains on whether the current price levels can hold as a definitive base, marking the end of the bear phase associated with the most recent halving cycle.