Deep Sea and Orbit Become New Strategic Fronts in Global Resource Race

The global competition for critical resources is expanding beyond traditional land-based mining into the deep ocean and outer space. According to the EY Megatrends 2026 report, a combination of climate change, geopolitical rivalry, and technological breakthroughs is unlocking these 'new frontiers' as strategic assets for governments and private corporations.

This shift is primarily driven by the clean energy transition, which has spiked demand for minerals essential to electric vehicles, power grids, and battery technology. As shallow deposits decline, deep-earth and deep-seabed extraction have become economically viable. In the Pacific Ocean, the Clarion-Clipperton Zone has emerged as a primary target, with estimates suggesting it contains 21.1 billion dry tons of polymetallic nodules rich in cobalt, nickel, copper, manganese, and rare earth elements. To manage this, the International Seabed Authority (ISA) has already approved 31 exploration contracts under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

The Commercialization of Orbit

Simultaneously, Earth's orbit is transitioning from a scientific domain to a commercial one. The space economy, which reached approximately $613 billion in 2024, is projected to hit $1 trillion by 2032. This growth is heavily driven by the private sector, which is estimated to account for 78% to 80% of the current market value. The scale of orbital activity has surged rapidly; the number of active satellites grew from roughly 3,300 in 2020 to approximately 13,000 by 2024.

Risks of Unregulated Expansion

This rapid expansion creates a volatile environment where economic opportunity clashes with severe environmental and security risks. In space, the lack of a global enforcement authority for traffic management and debris has created a precarious situation. There are currently an estimated 140 million pieces of debris larger than one millimeter orbiting Earth, increasing the risk of 'Kessler syndrome,' where collisions trigger a chain reaction of further debris that could render orbits unusable.

In the oceans, the pursuit of trillion-dollar mineral wealth threatens marine ecosystems and global food security. EY describes this current landscape as a 'NAVI' risk environment—non-linear, accelerated, volatile, and interconnected—where the race for resources could easily transform these frontiers into zones of geopolitical conflict rather than shared global prosperity.

The Governance Gap

What remains to be seen is whether existing international frameworks can evolve fast enough to prevent catastrophe. While UNCLOS provides a baseline for the seabed, the governance of orbital space remains fragmented. The primary challenge for the coming decade will be establishing enforceable rules that balance the urgent need for critical minerals with the preservation of the global commons. As private entities continue to outpace government regulation, the risk of unregulated 'land grabs' in the deep sea and orbit continues to grow.