Jefferies Forecasts 'New Industrial Revolution' Across Six Indian Sectors

India is entering a period of rapid industrial transformation centered on high-tech manufacturing and deep-tech capabilities. A new report from global investment bank Jefferies, titled 'India’s New Industrial Revolution,' identifies six sectors poised for explosive growth by 2030: space, semiconductors, data centres, electronics, solar, and aerospace.

The report highlights massive scaling across these industries, driven by a mix of government policy and private sector entry. In the space economy, Jefferies projects a nearly fivefold increase from 2023 levels, reaching a valuation of $40–45 billion by 2030. Similarly, data centre capacity, which grew fivefold over the last five years to 2 GW, is expected to hit 10 GW within the next five years, creating a $45 billion investment opportunity.

In the electronics sector, the shift is moving toward deeper domestic integration. Value addition in mobile components is expected to climb from under 20% to approximately 50% over the next six years. India has also established itself as the world's second-largest solar PV manufacturer, currently operating 35 GW of cell capacity with another 100 GW under construction. Jefferies expects roughly 90% of the solar value chain to be localized by 2030. In aerospace, the scale of integration is already evident, with Boeing and Airbus sourcing between $1.4 billion and $1.6 billion annually from Indian suppliers.

The Policy Engine

This industrial pivot is underpinned by strategic government interventions designed to reduce import reliance. Key drivers include the 2020 decision to open the space sector to private players and the implementation of tax holidays for data centres. To bolster electronics, the government has deployed the components scheme (ECMS) and the Mobile 2.0 (MPMS) initiatives. Furthermore, an additional incentive package of approximately $13 billion is expected to support the development of the semiconductor ecosystem.

Strategic Implications

This transition marks a fundamental shift for the Indian economy, moving from basic assembly to high-value component manufacturing. By establishing credible ecosystems in semiconductors and space, India aims to mitigate strategic dependencies on foreign imports and position itself as a global hub for advanced industrial production. Jefferies notes that while challenges regarding talent, global competition, and supply chain depth persist, the foundations for a credible semiconductor ecosystem are now being built.

Future Outlook

Investors and policymakers will now be watching the execution of the semiconductor incentive packages and the actualization of the 100 GW solar capacity pipeline. The primary metric for success will be whether the projected rise in domestic value addition in electronics translates into a sustainable, long-term reduction in strategic imports.