Goldman Sachs: CXMT to Meet 50% of China's Domestic DRAM Demand by 2028
The state-backed chipmaker is aggressively expanding capacity to erode the dominance of foreign memory suppliers.
China's state-backed memory maker Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) is on a trajectory to capture a massive share of its home market, potentially supplying half of China's domestic DRAM demand by 2028. This projection, attributed to analysis from Goldman Sachs, signals a significant acceleration in Beijing's push for semiconductor self-sufficiency.
According to reports from Maeil Business Newspaper and Goldman Sachs, CXMT is aggressively expanding its fabrication capacity. The goal is to provide approximately 50% of the DRAM required within China by 2028, a move that would drastically reduce the country's current dependence on foreign semiconductor giants. This expansion is part of a broader strategic effort to secure domestic supply chains against the backdrop of ongoing US-led trade restrictions.
The Push for Self-Sufficiency
For decades, the global DRAM market has been controlled by a tight triopoly consisting of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. China, the world's largest consumer of semiconductors, has historically relied on these firms for the vast majority of its memory needs. To break this dependency, the Chinese government has funneled billions into 'Big Fund' initiatives, providing the capital necessary for CXMT to build advanced fabrication plants and develop proprietary memory technology.
Market Implications
If CXMT successfully reaches the 50% domestic supply threshold, the shift would fundamentally alter the economics of the memory industry. A successful pivot toward domestic sourcing would diminish the market power and revenue streams of South Korean and US chipmakers within the Chinese border. Furthermore, such a rapid increase in production capacity could lead to global oversupply, potentially triggering price volatility across the broader DRAM market as the industry adjusts to a new, more fragmented supply landscape.
The Road Ahead
While the projection suggests a dominant domestic position by 2028, CXMT still faces significant hurdles. The company must continue to scale its yields and move up the technology curve to compete with the cutting-edge nodes produced by the triopoly. Industry observers are now watching whether CXMT can maintain this pace of expansion despite tightening export controls on the high-end lithography equipment required for next-generation memory production.